Eating too many cookies taught me an important lesson about leading and lagging indicators

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I’m fascinated by indicators. They help leaders keep an eye on what‘s been happening. But there are different kinds of indicators. Telling them apart and using them appropriately is a superpower. For example, some indicators are “lagging” and some are “leading”.

A lagging indicator usually reflects some kind of output. They’re typically easy to measure but relatively hard to improve.

A leading indicator usually reflects some kind of input. They’re typically hard to measure but relatively easy to improve or influence.

A while ago my weight started creeping up. It went from 70 to 71 and 72 in the space of three months. I had also started to buy - and inevitably gobble up - copious amounts of protein cookies.

These three indicators show us what I’d been buying, eating and weighing. They’re all helpful to measure but it’s crucial to understand that my weight was a lagging indicator. My naughty snacking was a leading indicator. It made my weight gain inevitable.

It’s also hard to eat imaginary cookies. Ah! The contents of my trolley was the true leading indicator. Buy more cookies, eat more cookies, gain more weight. Even my eating was a lagging indicator.

At work it’s equally easy to measure outcomes without understanding their leading indicators.