Is your decision reversible?
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When faced with uncertainty and multiple options, leaders should consider how reversible each decision is. Balance that with how bad things can get if you are wrong, and you have a helpful framework for making good decisions.
Making good decisions is really hard. Especially when the stakes are high.
My wife is a professional photographer and I co-own a small online retail side-business. This gives me lots of first hand insight into the difficult decisions that small business owners are faced with right now.
One of the ways I make decisions is to look at whether it is reversible and what the potential negative impact of being wrong is.
I’m going to illustrate the concept using a decision that all governments around the world has had to make recently. The question has been: Do we go into full lockdown?
In South Africa our government decided the answer is yes. Today is our first of 21 days at home. But was this a good decision? I think it definitely was.
Imagine after a week of additional data and analysis we now believe it’s not actually necessary, we can easily reverse the decision and go back to normal.
Now imagine we try avoid a lockdown while getting more certainty. A week later we realize we should have rather locked down.
That’s not very reversible. This virus is highly contagious with exponential infections and death. You can’t go back in time and stop those infections.
Leaders should consider how reversible each option is and if they can afford to be wrong.
My wife is a professional photographer and I co-own a small online retail side-business. This gives me lots of first hand insight into the difficult decisions that small business owners are faced with right now.
One of the ways I make decisions is to look at whether it is reversible and what the potential negative impact of being wrong is.
I’m going to illustrate the concept using a decision that all governments around the world has had to make recently. The question has been: Do we go into full lockdown?
In South Africa our government decided the answer is yes. Today is our first of 21 days at home. But was this a good decision? I think it definitely was.
Imagine after a week of additional data and analysis we now believe it’s not actually necessary, we can easily reverse the decision and go back to normal.
Now imagine we try avoid a lockdown while getting more certainty. A week later we realize we should have rather locked down.
That’s not very reversible. This virus is highly contagious with exponential infections and death. You can’t go back in time and stop those infections.
Leaders should consider how reversible each option is and if they can afford to be wrong.